The rapid advance of game technology and their ballooning budgets has resulted in some new trends that I think may become more familiar over the next few years.
Trilogies seem to be the new way to pitch big games.
The basic idea is that so much investment is required up front to create a new franchise that two more installments down the line (with lower production costs) are all but required to recoup the cost. This is sometimes referred to as a “Lord of the Rings” model, since that is supposedly how most of the profit on those films was made. Sequels tend to do well in games generally, and this development model ties in very nicely with marketing (“the story we wanted to tell was just too epic for one game”) and with Wall Street (“we aren’t just publishing games – we’re creating lasting entertainment franchises”). Additionally, if the first game tanks, the next two can always be cancelled. So, it seems like we can expect to see trilogies, whether the material really calls for one or not. Tying in with this is the next trend:
We’ll be seeing more sequels that re-use assets and environments.
I think we’re in for more familiar-looking sequels, because the games will strive to use as much of the same art and environments as their predecessors as they can get away with. This kind of re-use has always been around in some form or another, but the expensive nature of next-generation asset creation is going to make this strategy even more compelling. Investing cash into big, complex environments like fully traversable cities for one single game just won’t make sense to the money men, and they’ll want to defray that cost across as many games as possible. Increasingly, the industry will be asking gamers to play through the same environments again, with some cosmetic changes, and a few new gameplay mechanics thrown into the mix.
The worrying state of Japanese game development.
Akira Yamaoka touched on this in an interview with Brandon Sheffield, and it’s absolutely true. Broadly speaking, Japanese game development is several years behind the West from a technological standpoint. This is pretty clear if you’re a middleware provider dealing with studios in both regions, or if you do technical reviews of a wide variety of games in development, but it’s also apparent simply in the scope and the number of next-gen titles we see coming from each region. Is this a real problem, or does it not really matter? If it does, what should be done about it? This is an interesting and important story that I hope an enterprising game journalist with good contacts in the Japanese industry could really dig into at some point.
Comments (5)
The subject of Japan's situation is something I ramble on about endlessly, but it would be nice to see a real journo have a go at it. It's a shame most Japanese coverage seems to follow along the lines of "OMFG I'M IN AKIHABARALAND!" or "I GOT TO SPEAK TO THIS LEGENDARY GUY! WOW!"
Personally I would like to see more asset and code recycling (as a developer), but there are still some remnants of the old "reinventing the wheel mentality" we are so used to.
Posted by JC Barnett | January 9, 2008 7:53 PM
Posted on January 9, 2008 19:53
On the subject of Japanese game development, it looks like you concurrently posted about this – apologies for not noticing earlier.
Another point a potential journalist (I keep hinting at you guys, come on) could mention is how many well-known Japanese franchises are moving overseas for development: many of the newer Sonic games, Bionic Commando, the conversions of Street Fighter II and Puzzle Fighter for download, the Wii port of Okami, Silent Hill 5 for Konami, and so on. This used to be very unusual just a few years ago, with Silicon Knights' Metal Gear Solid: The Twin Snakes being one of the sole examples.
Posted by Matthew | January 9, 2008 8:25 PM
Posted on January 9, 2008 20:25
alright, fine! I'll do it. I've been thinking about it for about a year and a half, and I have the quotes to back it up from interviews I've done, because I've been investigating this for a while. I'll do it soon!
Posted by brandon | January 9, 2008 11:18 PM
Posted on January 9, 2008 23:18
I absolutely despise the "trilogy syndrome" that seems unavoidable these days. Halo, Gears of War, Mass Effect, Assassin's Creed.. just give me some damn closure over the course of one game and be done with it! I don't want to buy your stupid game three times!
Posted by Steve | January 14, 2008 5:30 PM
Posted on January 14, 2008 17:30
What is it about this next-gen stuff? And why is it a bad thing not to join in in the HD scam (because other than that, next-gen is not very different from last gen, except for the Wii)?
Posted by shadaik | March 24, 2008 3:10 PM
Posted on March 24, 2008 15:10